Gabriel Eskinja
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Eskinja's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €251k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 915 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1192
- Opponent strength
- 1191
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €284k – €849k
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 126% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -48% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 915 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | CB | 13 | 915 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1191 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | CB | 11 | 705 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1188 | 1182 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasyl Gakman Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Vitaliy Kholod Premier Liga · 2024 | 20 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Tiago Santana Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Mert Yılmaz Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €1.0M | €175k | fell |
| Ross Graham Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €325k | €700k | rose |
| Konstantinos Apostolakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €350k | €125k | fell |
| Owen Dodgson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Paolo Medina Super League 1 · 2021 | 22 | €300k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | Slaven Belupo | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Zrinski Osjecko | Slaven Belupo | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Slaven Belupo | Zrinski Osjecko | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sl. Belupo U19 | Slaven Belupo | Unknown | €50k |
| 18 Feb 2022 | SC Kalsdorf | Sl. Belupo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Kalsdorf II | SC Kalsdorf | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Gratkorn II | Kalsdorf II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Gratkorn Youth | Gratkorn II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Mar 2017 | Sturm Graz Yth | Gratkorn Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | GAK Youth | Sturm Graz Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Sept 2012 | Gratkorn Youth | GAK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.