Gvidas Gineitis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gvidas Gineitis's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-18.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-10.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (1763 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.8M vs market €5.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1763 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1419
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €10.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -51% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1763 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 29 | 1763 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1493 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 30 | 1423 | 42% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1484 | 1458 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 14 | 532 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1506 | 1510 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | CM | 3 | 136 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1596 | 1468 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afriyie Acquah Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Mohamed Kaba Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Pascal Stenzel Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Sadio Diallo Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Dion Lopy Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nico Schulz Bundesliga · 2014 | 21 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Théo Valls Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Nicolò Barella Serie A · 2017 | 20 | €5.0M | €36.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2023 | Torino U19 | Torino | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2022 | SPAL U19 | Torino U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SPAL U17 | SPAL U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Aug 2020 | Atmosfera | SPAL U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | BE1 NFA | Atmosfera | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.