Adamo Nagalo

24 yrs · Centre-back · Burkina Faso
PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.0M – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€248k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.0M – €3.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.9M – €410k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€248k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.0M – €3.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Adamo Nagalo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average15.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.2M vs market €2.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-28% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
597 (20% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
16 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1230
Opponent strength
1244
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.0M – €3.8M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +18% (IQR -35% to +76%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 597 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KonyasporSuper LigCB859720%000.000.05124412300.40
2024/25PSV EindhovenEredivisieCB61665%000.000.03127616320.50
2024/25FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCB160%000.000.07152113410.38
2023/24FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCB21164583%100.050.05127614440.48
2022/23FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCB18154878%110.120.08129813520.47
2021/22FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCB19144673%100.060.06126512310.45
2020/21FC NordsjaellandSuperligaCB130%000.000.05118313080.43

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsBurkina Faso27300—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven5145001822
2024/25Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven11000—
2023/24Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland548000—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Nordsjaelland3239001462
2022/23Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland538911—
2021/22Oddset PokalenFC Nordsjaelland26400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rick van Drongelen
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
24€1.5M€1.4Mflat
Stipe Radic
Superliga · 2024
24€800k€1.2Mrose
Dexter Lembikisa
Scottish Premiership · 2024
21€3.0M€800kfell
CJ Egan-Riley
Scottish Premiership · 2023
20€2.5M€16.0Mrose
Léo Duarte
Super Lig · 2021
25€2.2M€3.4Mrose
Bryan Reynolds
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
21€3.5M€3.0Mflat
Filip Damjanovic
Super Lig · 2024
26€1.4M€400kfell
Leandro González Pírez
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
22€1.0M€2.6Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026KonyasporPSVFree / loan€2.8M
30 Jan 2026PSVKonyasporFree / loan€3.0M
2 Sept 2024NordsjaellandPSV€7.0M€7.0M
23 Jul 2021Nordsjaell. U19NordsjaellandUnknown€400k
1 Aug 2020Right to DreamNordsjaell. U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.