
Adamo Nagalo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adamo Nagalo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 15.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 597 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1244
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +18% (IQR -35% to +76%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 597 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 8 | 597 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1244 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CB | 6 | 166 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1276 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1521 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 21 | 1645 | 83% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1276 | 1444 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1548 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1298 | 1352 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 19 | 1446 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1265 | 1231 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1183 | 1308 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Burkina Faso | 2 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 1822 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 239 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 389 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick van Drongelen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.4M | flat |
| Stipe Radic Superliga · 2024 | 24 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Dexter Lembikisa Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| CJ Egan-Riley Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 20 | €2.5M | €16.0M | rose |
| Léo Duarte Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.2M | €3.4M | rose |
| Bryan Reynolds Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Filip Damjanovic Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.4M | €400k | fell |
| Leandro González Pírez Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.6M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Konyaspor | PSV | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 30 Jan 2026 | PSV | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Nordsjaelland | PSV | €7.0M | €7.0M |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Right to Dream | Nordsjaell. U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.