Alejandro Garnacho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alejandro Garnacho's performance-implied value at EUR 26.1M-49.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.6M-39.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.4M-35.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1268 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 90th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.3M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1268 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1611
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.4M – €35.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club; role change AM -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -10% to +89%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1268 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 24 | 1268 | 37% | 1 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1611 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | AM | 36 | 2196 | 64% | 6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 1565 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 36 | 2576 | 75% | 7 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 1581 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 19 | 561 | 16% | 3 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1497 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 2 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1558 | 1609 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 395 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 9 | 330 | 1 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 15 | 972 | 1 | 4 | 1568 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 192 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1893 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 6 | 543 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 300 | 1 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 6 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 4 | 159 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Bergwijn Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Anthony Gordon Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Mason Greenwood Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €50.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Scamacca Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €20.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Heung-min Son Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Lazar Markovic Premier League · 2015 | 21 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Munir El Haddadi Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Man Utd | Chelsea | €46.2M | €45.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man Utd U21 | Man Utd | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Atlético Yth. | Man Utd U18 | €465k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.