
Anthony Gordon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anthony Gordon's performance-implied value at EUR 36.5M-56.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 42.4M-84.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 32.0M-68.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (1814 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €61.3M vs market €65.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1814 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1596
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €32.0M – €68.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -58% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LW | 26 | 1814 | 53% | 6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 1596 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LW | 34 | 2446 | 72% | 6 | 6 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1579 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LW | 35 | 2906 | 85% | 11 | 10 | 0.65 | 0.54 | 1573 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Everton FC | Premier League | RW | 16 | 1097 | 32% | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 1545 | 1475 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle United | Premier League | LW | 16 | 481 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 1584 | 1678 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Everton FC | Premier League | RW | 35 | 2286 | 67% | 4 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.33 | 1590 | 1474 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Everton FC | Premier League | RW | 3 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1469 | 1561 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 11 | 440 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 1613 | 1525 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 12 | 771 | 10 | 2 | 1657 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 2 | 137 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 96 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 128 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 6 | 440 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 4 | 362 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 4 | 315 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 75 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Everton FC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1386 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Dejan Kulusevski Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Heung-min Son Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €80.0M | €85.0M | flat |
| Alexandre Lacazette Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €60.0M | €48.0M | fell |
| Jadon Sancho Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €45.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Yevgen Konoplyanka Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Jesus Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €75.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Newcastle | Barcelona | €80.0M | €65.0M |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Everton | Newcastle | €45.6M | €40.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Preston | Everton | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Everton | Preston | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Everton U23 | Everton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Everton U18 | Everton U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Everton Youth | Everton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Liverpool Youth | Everton Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.