Mattheos Mountes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mattheos Mountes's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €339k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1439 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1237
- Opponent strength
- 1199
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €304k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); role change DM -> RB; relative output down 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -49% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1439 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | RB | 20 | 1439 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1199 | 1237 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | DM | 15 | 824 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1326 | 1192 | 0.35 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Mygas Super League 1 · 2016 | 22 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Oleksiy Bykov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Pape-Alioune Ndiaye Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €900k | €250k | fell |
| Adam Tzanetopoulos Super League 1 · 2017 | 22 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Rocky Bushiri Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €1.0M | rose |
| Vitaliy Roman Premier Liga · 2023 | 20 | €400k | €800k | rose |
| Marco Lund Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Oleksandr Azatskyi Premier Liga · 2017 | 23 | €400k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Diagoras | Atromitos | Free / loan | €100k |
| 20 Aug 2023 | Atromitos | Diagoras | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Atromitos U19 | Atromitos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.