Tiago Santos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tiago Santos's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-6.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.4M-12.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-15.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 57.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.4M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 709 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €15.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -58% to +44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 709 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 15 | 709 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1501 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 7 | 405 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1434 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 29 | 2363 | 77% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1459 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RB | 30 | 2424 | 79% | 0 | 6 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1399 | 1252 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 11 | 568 | 0 | 1 | 1504 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 348 | 1 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 1840 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalbert Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Davide Santon Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Djed Spence Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Jon Pacheco Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Abner Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Diogo Dalot Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Yannik Keitel Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Luca Pellegrini Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2023 | Estoril | Lille | €6.5M | €3.5M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Estoril U23 | Estoril | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Sporting CP U23 | Estoril U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sacavenense S17 | Estoril U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Oeiras S17 | Sacavenense S17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting Sub-15 | Oeiras S17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.