Diogo Dalot

27 yrs · Right-back (also LB, LM) · Portugal
Manchester United · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
18/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€30.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€15.1M – €35.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€32.4M – €44.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€14.0M – €25.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.2M – €29.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€15.1M – €35.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€32.4M – €44.2M
Projected value (24 months)€14.0M – €25.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Diogo Dalot's performance-implied value at EUR 32.4M-44.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.1M-35.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.0M-25.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 18

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite97th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €24.9M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2616 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1715
Opponent strength
1595
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€14.0M – €25.2M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); role change LM -> RB; relative output up 78% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -34% to -6%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRB34261676%130.140.15159517151.30
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueLM33281382%030.100.13157516031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRB36317493%230.140.13157915941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRB26215563%120.130.13159016991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRB24179753%000.000.03155116091.17
2020/21AC MilanSerie ARB21108032%110.170.09140616390.90
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRB4662%000.000.11152917201.14
2018/19Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueRB16101430%020.180.11149516691.22
2017/18FC PortoLiga PortugalLB640813%020.440.12135016500.64

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Fa CupManchester United19000—
2025/26World CupPortugal14500—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United131036301558
2024/25Fa CupManchester United327101—
2024/25Community ShieldManchester United190001893
2023/24Fa CupManchester United659312—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United6462001633
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United10621111522
2022/23Fa CupManchester United330000—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United3233001656
2021/22Fa CupManchester United221000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan10757121576
2020/21Italy CupAC Milan221000—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United3261001536
2019/20Fa CupManchester United425110—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United4243001728
2018/19Fa CupManchester United218000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto190001774

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marcos Alonso
Premier League · 2019
29€40.0M€12.0Mfell
Victor Lindelöf
Premier League · 2021
27€24.0M€18.0Mfell
Andrew Robertson
Premier League · 2023
29€40.0M€18.0Mfell
Kyle Walker
Premier League · 2017
27€30.0M€50.0Mrose
Ben White
Premier League · 2023
26€55.0M€45.0Mflat
Gabriel Paulista
Laliga · 2019
29€20.0M€15.0Mfell
Michael Keane
Premier League · 2019
26€30.0M€25.0Mflat
Mats Hummels
Bundesliga · 2013
25€26.0M€35.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2021AC MilanMan UtdFree / loan€10.0M
4 Oct 2020Man UtdAC MilanFree / loan€12.0M
1 Jul 2018PortoMan Utd€22.0M€15.0M
21 Feb 2018FC Porto BPortoUnknown€600k
1 Jan 2017FC Porto U19FC Porto BUnknown€50k
1 Jan 2016FC Porto U17FC Porto U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Padroense U17FC Porto U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014FC Porto U15Padroense U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012FC Porto YouthFC Porto U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.