Alessandro Marcandalli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alessandro Marcandalli's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-9.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.4M-22.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.5M-24.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €15.9M vs market €14.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2600 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.5M – €24.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -21% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2600 | 76% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1504 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Venezia FC | Serie A | CB | 8 | 356 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1461 | 1293 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 2 | 46 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1544 | 1444 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 3 | 204 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Costa Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Abdou Diallo Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Calum Chambers Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Lorenz Assignon Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Melvin Bard Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Youcef Atal Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Jonjoe Kenny Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €9.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Luca Netz Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Venezia | Genoa | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | Genoa | Venezia | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Reggiana | Genoa | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Genoa | Reggiana | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Pontedera | Genoa | Free / loan | €200k |
| 28 Jul 2022 | Genoa | Pontedera | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Genoa U19 | Genoa | Unknown | €100k |
| 22 Jul 2021 | Giana Erminio | Genoa U19 | Unknown | €25k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Genoa U19 | Giana Erminio | Free / loan | €25k |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Giana Erminio | Genoa U19 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Giana Giovanili | Giana Erminio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atalanta Youth | Giana Giovanili | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.