Melvin Bard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Melvin Bard's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.7M-11.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-12.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2396 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €12.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-164 Elo); role change LM -> LB; relative output up 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -38% to +43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LB | 29 | 2396 | 78% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1487 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LM | 24 | 1941 | 63% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1450 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LB | 32 | 2661 | 87% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1467 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LB | 33 | 2458 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1449 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | LB | 33 | 2591 | 76% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1441 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LB | 14 | 425 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1470 | 1587 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LB | 1 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1378 | 1566 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 6 | 530 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 5 | 318 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silvan Widmer Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €9.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Sergio Akieme Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Emmanuel Agbadou Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Armando Izzo Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €6.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Saúl Coco Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Björn Engels Ligue 1 · 2019 | 25 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Luís Neto Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ghislain Konan Ligue 1 · 2021 | 26 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2021 | Lyon | Nice | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Domtac FC Jgd. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.