Kobbie Mainoo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kobbie Mainoo's performance-implied value at EUR 31.3M-52.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 57.5M-101.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 36.6M-88.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1654 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €75.1M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1654 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1621
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €36.6M – €88.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); role change CM -> DM; relative output up 172% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -46% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1654 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | DM | 28 | 1654 | 48% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1621 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | CM | 25 | 1656 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1566 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | DM | 24 | 1940 | 57% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1602 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | AM | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1554 | 1699 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 8 | 175 | 2 | 1 | 1554 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 145 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1893 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 6 | 423 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €50.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Jack Wilshere Premier League · 2014 | 22 | €33.0M | €23.0M | fell |
| Harvey Elliott Premier League · 2024 | 21 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €65.0M | €100M | rose |
| Conor Gallagher Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Pedri Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €80.0M | €150M | rose |
| Dani Ceballos Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €27.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | Man Utd U21 | Man Utd | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Man Utd Youth | Man Utd U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.