Nuno Lima
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nuno Lima's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2826 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1274
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +32% (IQR -31% to +95%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2826 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1274 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2556 | 79% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1290 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 19 | 1160 | 34% | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1266 | 1313 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2445 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1434 | 1231 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Paços de Ferreira | Liga Portugal | CB | 13 | 973 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1371 | 1321 | 0.67 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nihad Mujakic Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Mats Köhlert Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Ross McCrorie Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.8M | rose |
| Taha Şahin Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.2M | €3.0M | rose |
| Burak Öksüz Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Manolis Saliakas Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Zan Zaletel Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mads Thychosen Superliga · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sept 2023 | Paços Ferreira | Alanyaspor | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Felgueiras | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Paços Ferreira | Felgueiras | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | P. Ferreira U19 | Paços Ferreira | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Feirense Sub-17 | P. Ferreira U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Feirense Sub-15 | Feirense Sub-17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | P. Ferreira U15 | Feirense Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Porto Youth | P. Ferreira U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.