Thiago Nuss
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thiago Nuss's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (1557 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €885k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1557 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.52
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1249
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €736k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -43% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1557 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | LW | 20 | 1557 | 67% | 6 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 1249 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | LW | 22 | 1677 | 72% | 7 | 5 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 1245 | 1196 | 0.35 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 8 | 659 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 7 | 482 | 4 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Miritello Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Rigoberto Rivas Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.9M | €1.2M | fell |
| Élie Youan Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Altin Zeqiri Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vlad Morar Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €700k | €325k | fell |
| Milos Deletic Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Anice Badri Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Ben Sahar Eredivisie · 2015 | 26 | €700k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | Argentinos Jrs. | OFI Crete | €800k | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | OFI Crete | Argentinos Jrs. | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jul 2024 | Argentinos Jrs. | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Central Córdoba | Argentinos Jrs. | Free / loan | €450k |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Argentinos Jrs. | Central Córdoba | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Argentinos II | Argentinos Jrs. | Unknown | €25k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Atl. Rafaela | Argentinos II | Free / loan | €25k |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Argentinos II | Atl. Rafaela | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Dep. Español | Argentinos II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | D. Español U20 | Dep. Español | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.