Diogo Spencer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diogo Spencer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €798k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1239 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1305
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €549k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR +6% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1239 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | RB | 13 | 1006 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1305 | 1182 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | RB | 7 | 233 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1296 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1344 | 1603 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Yves Ngawa Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Pavel Kaloshin Premier Liga · 2019 | 21 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Kristof D'Haene Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 23 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Rafa Soares Liga Portugal · 2016 | 21 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Guillaume François Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 23 | €500k | €900k | rose |
| Lukas Willen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 20 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Grégory Mertens Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Loïc Mbe Soh Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Benfica B | Alverca | Unknown | €900k |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Avs FS | Benfica B | Free / loan | €900k |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Benfica B | Avs FS | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sacavenense F. | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.