Emircan Gürlük
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emircan Gürlük's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1653 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.1M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1653 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1338
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €653k – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -36% to +339%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1653 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LW | 24 | 1653 | 61% | 4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.51 | 1338 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LW | 23 | 1010 | 37% | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 1308 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LW | 15 | 473 | 18% | 0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 1303 | 1272 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 4 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 5 | 259 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 9 | 525 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyril Ngonge Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €1.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Walter González Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Stephen Buyl Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Yohan Boli Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €900k | €3.0M | rose |
| Tijjani Noslin Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €750k | €7.5M | rose |
| Uche Nwofor Eredivisie · 2013 | 22 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Úmaro Embaló Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Stanley Elbers Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €900k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Orenburg | Without Club | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Altinordu | Orenburg | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2021 | Altinordu U19 | Altinordu | Unknown | €50k |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Altinordu U17 | Altinordu U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 Aug 2019 | Selimiye Yth | Altinordu U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Feb 2019 | Galatasaray U16 | Selimiye Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Galatasaray Yth | Galatasaray U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.