Nicolás Valentini
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolás Valentini's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1406 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1523
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-97 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -35% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1406 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 21 | 1406 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1523 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 14 | 1132 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1522 | 1366 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Cozza Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Silvan Hefti Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mattia Bani Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.4M | flat |
| Ardian Ismajli Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Johan Vásquez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Adama Mbengue Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Matteo Lovato Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Raúl Torrente Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Hellas Verona | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 2 Jan 2025 | Boca Juniors | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Boca Juniors II | Boca Juniors | Unknown | €750k |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Aldosivi | Boca Juniors II | Free / loan | €750k |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Boca Juniors II | Aldosivi | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | CABJ U20 | Boca Juniors II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | CABJ JV | CABJ U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Sarmiento U20 | CABJ JV | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.