Johan Vásquez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Johan Vásquez's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-14.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.3M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-14.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.1M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3217 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.3M – €14.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -55% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 36 | 3217 | 94% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1501 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 36 | 3041 | 89% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1494 | 1444 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 37 | 2853 | 83% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1492 | 1445 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Cremonese | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1809 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1499 | 1269 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | LB | 16 | 1302 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1458 | 1325 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Mexico | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 4 | 378 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Javi Galán Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Germán Pezzella Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €13.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Federico Baschirotto Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Timo Hübers Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Robert Huth Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €8.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Cremonese | Genoa | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Genoa | Cremonese | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 3 Jan 2022 | UNAM Pumas | Genoa | €3.5M | €4.0M |
| 2 Jan 2022 | Genoa | UNAM Pumas | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 16 Aug 2021 | UNAM Pumas | Genoa | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Monterrey | UNAM Pumas | €3.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Cimarrones | Monterrey | €1.8M | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Monterrey | Cimarrones | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Cimarrones | Monterrey | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Cimarrones II | Cimarrones | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Poblado FC | Cimarrones II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Tigres UANL U17 | Poblado FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.