Nuno Mendes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nuno Mendes's performance-implied value at EUR 25.1M-46.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 60.7M-104.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 51.3M-78.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €84.6M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1250 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1454
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €51.3M – €78.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 96% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -23% to -2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1250 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 20 | 1250 | 41% | 4 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.25 | 1454 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 24 | 1676 | 55% | 2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 1456 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 6 | 266 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.13 | 1400 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LM | 23 | 1554 | 45% | 1 | 6 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 1446 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 27 | 1654 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1424 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LB | 2 | 113 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1312 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 29 | 2404 | 79% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1346 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 9 | 657 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1377 | 1492 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 16 | 1283 | 2 | 2 | 1696 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 3 | 252 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 16 | 1449 | 4 | 2 | 1708 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 422 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 441 | 1 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 582 | 0 | 0 | 1737 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1493 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1474 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noussair Mazraoui Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Ronald Araujo Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €70.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Layvin Kurzawa Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €22.0M | €17.5M | fell |
| Achraf Hakimi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €60.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Alessandro Bastoni Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €70.0M | €65.0M | flat |
| Jakub Kiwior Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €30.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Danny Rose Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Thilo Kehrer Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sporting | PSG | €38.0M | €40.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | PSG | Sporting | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Sporting | PSG | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting U17 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | O Despertar Fo. | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.