Dani Olmo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani Olmo's performance-implied value at EUR 23.7M-59.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.7M-70.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.2M-46.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (2077 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €45.4M vs market €60.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2077 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.2M – €46.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -46% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | AM | 33 | 2077 | 61% | 7 | 8 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 1457 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | AM | 25 | 1216 | 36% | 10 | 4 | 1.04 | 0.44 | 1510 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 21 | 1456 | 48% | 4 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.34 | 1520 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 1284 | 42% | 2 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 1535 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 19 | 740 | 24% | 3 | 3 | 0.73 | 0.44 | 1591 | 1663 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2204 | 72% | 5 | 10 | 0.61 | 0.36 | 1518 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 12 | 752 | 25% | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.29 | 1509 | 1700 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 445 | 1 | 2 | 1630 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 274 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Spain | 3 | 100 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 9 | 438 | 2 | 1 | 1679 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 249 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1823 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 1810 |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 78 | 3 | 0 | 1817 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 254 | 2 | 4 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 1763 |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 1847 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 453 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 219 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 2 | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1825 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 588 | 1 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 6 | 475 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 540 | 2 | 1 | 1705 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 5 | 370 | 3 | 3 | 1423 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 2 | 128 | 1 | 0 | 1763 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rodríguez Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €70.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Federico Dimarco Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €35.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Marco Verratti Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €45.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Ander Herrera Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Leon Goretzka Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €70.0M | €45.0M | fell |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Premier League · 2018 | 29 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Marcel Sabitzer Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | Leipzig | Barcelona | €61.0M | €60.0M |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Dinamo Zagreb | Leipzig | €34.2M | €35.0M |
| 23 Jan 2015 | Din. Zagreb II | Dinamo Zagreb | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2014 | Barça U16 | Din. Zagreb II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Espanyol Youth | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.