Nacho Ferri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nacho Ferri's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-11.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-14.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (2238 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €7.2M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 39% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2238 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1348
- Opponent strength
- 1386
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 39%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €14.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+147 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -55% to +351%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 28 | 2238 | 83% | 7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 1386 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 27 | 1855 | 69% | 6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 1381 | 1201 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 8 | 68 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.32 | 0.53 | 1493 | 1498 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 675 | 4 | 0 | 1370 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loïs Openda Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €7.5M | €60.0M | rose |
| Daniil Lesovoy Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Paul-José Mpoku Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €6.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Milot Rashica Eredivisie · 2017 | 21 | €3.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Aminu Umar Super Lig · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Heri Tavares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 22 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Martin Ødegaard Eredivisie · 2019 | 21 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | Frankfurt | KVC Westerlo | €1.5M | €2.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | KV Kortrijk | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Frankfurt | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 5 Oct 2022 | E. Frankfurt II | Frankfurt | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Frankfurt U19 | E. Frankfurt II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Alzira U19 | Frankfurt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ontinyent CF Yo | Alzira U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.