
Loïs Openda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Loïs Openda's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-24.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.1M-32.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-22.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (702 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 79.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €23.7M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 702 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1611
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.1M – €22.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 60 pts; changed club; team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output down 22% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -37% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 702 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | ST | 24 | 652 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.30 | 1509 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 2 | 50 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1724 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2464 | 81% | 9 | 9 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 1505 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2716 | 89% | 24 | 7 | 1.03 | 0.56 | 1500 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 38 | 2532 | 74% | 21 | 4 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 1443 | 1626 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2661 | 87% | 18 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 1342 | 1379 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2438 | 80% | 10 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.43 | 1371 | 1394 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 15 | 384 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1365 | 1578 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 14 | 241 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.37 | 1344 | 1546 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 8 | 320 | 1 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 682 | 1 | 2 | 1653 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 360 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 558 | 4 | 0 | 1707 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1817 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 172 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 5 | 369 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 128 | 1 | 2 | 1541 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 5 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 1737 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Politano Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €22.5M | €20.0M | flat |
| Mariano Díaz Laliga · 2019 | 26 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Andrea Petagna Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Hirving Lozano Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €28.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Samuel Chukwueze Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Patrik Schick Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €25.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Ciro Immobile Bundesliga · 2015 | 25 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Federico Chiesa Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €65.0M | €35.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Leipzig | Juventus | €42.8M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Juventus | Leipzig | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Leipzig | Juventus | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Lens | Leipzig | €40.0M | €35.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Club Brugge | Lens | €15.4M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Vitesse | Club Brugge | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 21 Jul 2020 | Club Brugge | Vitesse | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Brügge U21 | Club Brugge | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Club Bruges U19 | FC Brügge U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Club Brugge Yth | Club Bruges U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Standard Yth | Club Brugge Yth | €190k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Lüttich Jugend | Standard Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.