Martin Ødegaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Ødegaard's performance-implied value at EUR 47.4M-85.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 29.4M-80.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.7M-52.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1371 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €54.1M vs market €65.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1371 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1607
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.7M – €52.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -55% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1371 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 24 | 1371 | 40% | 1 | 7 | 0.53 | 0.29 | 1607 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 30 | 2332 | 68% | 3 | 8 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1558 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 35 | 3104 | 91% | 8 | 10 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 1575 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CM | 37 | 3150 | 92% | 15 | 8 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 1554 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 36 | 2793 | 82% | 7 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 1550 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | AM | 14 | 866 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 1617 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Real Madrid | Laliga | AM | 7 | 232 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1565 | 1788 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 31 | 2532 | 74% | 4 | 6 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 1556 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | RW | 31 | 2614 | 85% | 8 | 10 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 1345 | 1413 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | RW | 24 | 2078 | 68% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 1337 | 1317 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | AM | 14 | 668 | 22% | 0 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 1315 | 1266 | 0.54 |
| 2014/15 | Real Madrid | Laliga | AM | 1 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1442 | 1868 | 1.18 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 374 | 0 | 1 | 1582 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 171 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 11 | 799 | 3 | 2 | 1689 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 751 | 2 | 1 | 1669 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 7 | 238 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 424 | 1 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 402 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 315 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 165 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Strømsgodset IF | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rodríguez Laliga · 2016 | 25 | €70.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Luka Modrić Laliga · 2015 | 30 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Philippe Coutinho Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €56.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Thiago Alcántara Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €60.0M | €48.0M | fell |
| Bernardo Silva Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €70.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Hakim Ziyech Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €38.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Leon Goretzka Bundesliga · 2022 | 27 | €65.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Naby Keïta Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €60.0M | €32.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2021 | Real Madrid | Arsenal | €35.0M | €40.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Arsenal | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 27 Jan 2021 | Real Madrid | Arsenal | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | Real Sociedad | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €45.0M |
| 5 Jul 2019 | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Vitesse | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 21 Aug 2018 | Real Madrid | Vitesse | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Heerenveen | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 9 Jan 2017 | Real Madrid | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Jan 2017 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 22 Jan 2015 | Strømsgodset | RM Castilla | €2.8M | €4.0M |
| 5 May 2014 | Strømsgodset II | Strømsgodset | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Godset Yth. | Strømsgodset II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.