Jack Hinshelwood
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jack Hinshelwood's performance-implied value at EUR 36.1M-50.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.5M-39.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.9M-49.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1751 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.6M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1751 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1611
- Opponent strength
- 1622
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.9M – €49.8M
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> AM; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -34% to +88%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1751 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | AM | 27 | 1751 | 51% | 4 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 1622 | 1611 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CM | 26 | 1848 | 54% | 5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 1585 | 1614 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | RB | 12 | 871 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 1564 | 1520 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | DM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1604 | 1619 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 308 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Aït-Nouri Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €20.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Jack Wilshere Premier League · 2014 | 22 | €33.0M | €23.0M | fell |
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Conor Gallagher Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Max Meyer Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €15.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Carlos Soler Laliga · 2018 | 21 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Adam Wharton Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €28.0M | €75.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Brighton U21 | Brighton | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Brighton U18 | Brighton U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Brighton Yth. | Brighton U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.