Taichi Fukui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Taichi Fukui's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-11.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.36x the positional average in the league (2531 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 31% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2531 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1340
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 31%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €11.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 114% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -41% to +156%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CM | 33 | 2531 | 83% | 4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 1340 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | CM | 30 | 2188 | 72% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1357 | 1285 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Portimonense SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 11 | 598 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1370 | 1193 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tresor Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €2.8M | €15.0M | rose |
| Adem Zorgane Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Diego Lopes Liga Portugal · 2015 | 21 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Joey Veerman Eredivisie · 2020 | 22 | €3.2M | €14.0M | rose |
| Lerin Duarte Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Alexis De Sart Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Daniil Utkin Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €7.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Hakim Ziyech Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | FC Bayern II | Arouca | €1.6M | €1.5M |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Arouca | FC Bayern II | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 4 Jul 2024 | FC Bayern II | Arouca | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Portimonense | FC Bayern II | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2024 | FC Bayern II | Portimonense | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Sagan U18 | FC Bayern II | €400k | €75k |
| 1 Apr 2020 | Sagan Jg | Sagan U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.