Arthur Chaves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arthur Chaves's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-6.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-6.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1067 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1440
- Opponent strength
- 1555
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €6.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts; changed club; relative output up 119% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -50% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1067 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 829 | 27% | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1555 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 4 | 238 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1564 | 1508 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2187 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1521 | 1415 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 423 | 0 | 0 | 1541 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Copete Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €2.8M | €5.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Cozza Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Edoardo Goldaniga Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Florentin Pogba Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Ruben Aguilar Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel Ligue 1 · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Bruno Gaspar Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Pablo Maffeo Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Augsburg | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Hoffenheim | Augsburg | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Académico Viseu | Hoffenheim | €6.0M | €1.2M |
| 18 Aug 2022 | Avaí FC | Académico Viseu | €2.4M | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2021 | Avaí U20 | Avaí FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.