Jordhy Thompson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jordhy Thompson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (2141 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €941k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2141 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1345
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €808k – €3.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -35% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 28 | 2141 | 79% | 5 | 6 | 0.46 | 0.53 | 1345 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 9 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1264 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 10 | 728 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 1353 | 1272 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 2 | 52 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renaud Emond Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| John Jairo Ruiz Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 21 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Vladyslav Kalitvintsev Premier Liga · 2016 | 23 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Mamadou Sylla Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Simy Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €1.1M | €800k | fell |
| Danilo Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €4.2M | €6.5M | rose |
| Adnane Tighadouini Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €1.4M | €850k | fell |
| Alieu Fadera Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Colo-Colo | Orenburg | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Orenburg | Colo-Colo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Colo-Colo | Orenburg | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Colo-Colo U21 | Colo-Colo | Unknown | €125k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.