Rosen Bozhinov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rosen Bozhinov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-4.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-11.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 36% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1893 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1331
- Opponent strength
- 1373
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 36%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €11.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -68% to +59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 16 | 1279 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1373 | 1365 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | CB | 9 | 614 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1456 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 7 | 113 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1236 | 1442 | 0.63 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoël Armougom Ligue 1 · 2019 | 21 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sacha Boey Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €2.5M | €16.0M | rose |
| Enock Kwateng Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Hamza Mendyl Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €2.8M | €800k | fell |
| Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Corentin Fiore Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 21 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Samir Caetano Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Nathan Ngoy Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | Royal Antwerp | Pisa | €5.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | CSKA 1948 | Royal Antwerp | €500k | €200k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | CSKA 1948 II | CSKA 1948 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | CSKA 1948 III | CSKA 1948 II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | CSKA-Sofia | CSKA 1948 III | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2022 | CSKA-Sofia U19 | CSKA-Sofia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2021 | Etar U19 | CSKA Sofia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.