Gonçalo Nogueira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonçalo Nogueira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.9M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-9.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1345 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1345 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1302
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €9.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +32% (IQR +1% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1345 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 23 | 1345 | 44% | 0 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 1302 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1412 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 2 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1646 | 1387 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 1 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1242 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul-José Mpoku Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 21 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 20 | €4.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Nikita Krivtsov Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €2.8M | €4.0M | rose |
| Jailson Super Lig · 2019 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Hugo Siquet Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Metinho Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Danil Prutsev Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Alexis Beka Beka Premier Liga · 2022 | 21 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Paços Ferreira | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €600k |
| 29 Jul 2024 | Vit. Guimarães | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Guimarães B | Vit. Guimarães | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Guimarães U23 | Guimarães B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vitória SC U19 | Guimarães U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Vitória SC U17 | Vitória SC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vitória SC U15 | Vitória SC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Vitória SC Yth | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.