Nikita Krivtsov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikita Krivtsov's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-11.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.5M-10.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-15.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (1489 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.6M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1489 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1536
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €15.9M
Trajectory drivers: role change AM -> CM; relative output up 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -18% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1489 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CM | 29 | 1489 | 55% | 7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.28 | 1323 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | AM | 27 | 1172 | 43% | 5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 1275 | 1511 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | AM | 30 | 1658 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1314 | 1405 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | AM | 20 | 1285 | 48% | 6 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 1310 | 1405 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | AM | 20 | 1059 | 39% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 1333 | 1371 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 9 | 723 | 2 | 4 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 7 | 535 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 83 | 1 | 1 | 1491 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 5 | 241 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 6 | 386 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Torpedo Vladimir | 1 | 81 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Zalazar Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €12.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Dorukhan Toköz Super Lig · 2019 | 23 | €5.5M | €4.7M | flat |
| Pajtim Kasami Super League 1 · 2015 | 23 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Ryan Christie Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 25 | €4.8M | €9.0M | rose |
| Luciano Narsingh Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Anton Miranchuk Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jorge Carrascal Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2021 | Torpedo Vladimir | Krasnodar | €90k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Tom Tomsk | Torpedo Vladimir | Free / loan | €400k |
| 18 Feb 2021 | Torpedo Vladimir | Tom Tomsk | Free / loan | €150k |
| 24 Jul 2020 | Murom | Torpedo Vladimir | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Feb 2020 | Sokol Moskau | Murom | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Nov 2018 | DFK TS | Sokol Moskau | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.