Ismahila Ouédraogo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ismahila Ouédraogo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.49x the positional average in the league (1470 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €731k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1470 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1216
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €532k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club; league level up (+61 Elo); relative output up 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1470 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | DM | 16 | 1380 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1259 | 1215 | 0.47 |
| 2025/26 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | DM | 1 | 90 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1156 | 1237 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | DM | 24 | 2102 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1266 | 1192 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | DM | 18 | 1318 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1254 | 1189 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | DM | 1 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1252 | 1219 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Burkina Faso | 3 | 239 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 4 | 225 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panserraikos Serres | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melle Meulensteen Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €2.5M | rose |
| Mark Brink Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €700k | €2.0M | rose |
| Deni Hočko Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Ayo Simon Okosun Superliga · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Perry Kitchen Superliga · 2018 | 26 | €750k | €475k | fell |
| Catalin Carp Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Pavlo Ksyonz Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Hélder Tavares Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €600k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2025 | Atromitos | Odense BK | €750k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | PAOK Saloniki B | Atromitos | €375k | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Panserraikos | PAOK Saloniki B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 11 Aug 2023 | PAOK Saloniki B | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €300k |
| 4 Sept 2022 | Volos NFC | PAOK Saloniki B | Free / loan | €300k |
| 23 Jul 2022 | PAOK Saloniki B | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2021 | AS Douanes | PAOK Saloniki B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | KOZAF | AS Douanes | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.