Darío Osorio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Darío Osorio's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-14.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.0M-26.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.3M-26.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1337 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €18.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1337 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1244
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.3M – €26.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +60% (IQR +24% to +163%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1337 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 19 | 1337 | 68% | 4 | 6 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 1244 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 16 | 979 | 49% | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1305 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 14 | 645 | 33% | 5 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.42 | 1255 | 1449 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 484 | 0 | 2 | 1503 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 334 | 2 | 2 | 1317 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 309 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 641 | 3 | 0 | 1515 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 433 | 1 | 0 | 1369 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Paixão Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €14.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Gastón Pereiro Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Tetê Premier Liga · 2021 | 21 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Cody Gakpo Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €18.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Joel Campbell Super League 1 · 2014 | 22 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Darwin Núñez Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €20.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Alfredo Morelos Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 24 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Santiago Gimenez Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2023 | U. de Chile | Midtjylland | €5.2M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | U. de Chile U21 | U. de Chile | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.