Antonio Espigares
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antonio Espigares's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €531k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 34% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 972 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 34%
- Resale range (24m)
- €367k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -23% to +140%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 972 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 19 | 972 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1299 | 1303 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charalampos Ikonomopoulos Super League 1 · 2013 | 22 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Michalis Giannitsis Super League 1 · 2013 | 21 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Matheus Pereira Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €400k | €2.5M | rose |
| Ross Graham Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 21 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Hugo Basto Liga Portugal · 2015 | 22 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Jubal Liga Portugal · 2016 | 23 | €250k | €1.3M | rose |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2019 | 23 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Diogo Calila Liga Portugal · 2021 | 23 | €350k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Villarreal CF B | Gil Vicente | €200k | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Real Unión | Villarreal CF B | Free / loan | €100k |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Villarreal CF B | Real Unión | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Villarreal U19 | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Granada Yth. | Villarreal Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.