Miguel Román
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Miguel Román's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-11.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.5M-23.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.6M-27.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (1310 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1310 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.6M – €27.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -18% to +65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1310 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 19 | 1310 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1473 | 1498 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 542 | 0 | 2 | 1479 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 151 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Henrique Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Jens Cajuste Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Amadou Onana Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Joe Allen Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Jean Lucas Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Andy Diouf Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Diadié Samassékou Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Celta Fortuna | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €400k |
| 24 Jul 2023 | Pontevedra CF | Celta Fortuna | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | CD Choco U19 | Pontevedra CF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Bouzas U19 | CD Choco U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.