Amadou Onana
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amadou Onana's performance-implied value at EUR 40.1M-60.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 30.0M-67.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.4M-60.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.60x the positional average in the league (1764 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €48.5M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1764 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1628
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.4M – €60.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -56% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1764 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 25 | 1764 | 52% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1628 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 26 | 1624 | 47% | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1572 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | DM | 30 | 2090 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1574 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Everton FC | Premier League | CM | 33 | 2496 | 73% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1579 | 1475 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | DM | 32 | 1347 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1436 | 1540 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 11 | 759 | 0 | 0 | 1487 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 2 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 5 | 272 | 1 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 84 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 8 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Ceballos Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €27.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Jesse Lingard Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €50.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Mateo Kovacic Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €35.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Sead Kolasinac Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €20.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Tanguy Ndombélé Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €50.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Oscar Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €35.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Konrad Laimer Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2024 | Everton | Aston Villa | €59.4M | €50.0M |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Lille | Everton | €39.9M | €10.0M |
| 5 Aug 2021 | Hamburg | Lille | €13.6M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hamburg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Zulte W. Youth | Hoffenheim U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.