Jakob Vester
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakob Vester's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.48x the positional average in the league (498 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 5.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €530k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 45% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 498 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1286
- Opponent strength
- 1235
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 45%
- Resale range (24m)
- €494k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -29% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 498 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 15 | 498 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 1235 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 20 | 804 | 41% | 4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 1307 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 4 | 32 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1207 | 1261 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | RB | 2 | 91 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1344 | 1327 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 5 | 339 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 7 | 355 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Campbell Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 21 | €425k | €350k | flat |
| Enes Saglik Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €600k | €900k | rose |
| Anastasios Bakasetas Super League 1 · 2015 | 22 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| Abdisalam Ibrahim Super League 1 · 2014 | 23 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Mohamed Daf Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 20 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| Ibrahim Kane Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Enric Llansana Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €700k | €2.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | Viborg FF | Sandefjord | €400k | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Viborg FF U19 | Viborg FF | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Viborg FF Youth | Viborg FF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Holstebro U19 | Viborg FF Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.