Konstantinos Kostoulas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Konstantinos Kostoulas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €812k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 31% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 984 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 31%
- Resale range (24m)
- €555k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -26% to +164%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 984 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | CB | 14 | 984 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1276 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 3 | 190 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1238 | 1270 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 9 | 807 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Aleksandrov Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Mads Andersen Superliga · 2019 | 22 | €350k | €5.0M | rose |
| Mimeirhel Benita Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €850k | €500k | fell |
| Miguel Rodrigues Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Lefteris Lyratzis Super League 1 · 2020 | 20 | €350k | €1.5M | rose |
| Morgan Boyes Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Arif Kocaman Super Lig · 2023 | 20 | €800k | €1.8M | rose |
| Albert Roussos Super League 1 · 2017 | 21 | €250k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Olympiacos | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €500k |
| 12 Feb 2025 | Rio Ave U23 | Rio Ave | Unknown | €300k |
| 11 Jul 2024 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave U23 | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Olympiacos B | Olympiacos | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Olympiacos U19 | Olympiacos B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Feb 2022 | Olympiacos U17 | Olympiacos U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.