Junior Olaitan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Junior Olaitan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-11.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-11.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2103 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2103 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1320
- Opponent strength
- 1281
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €11.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -51% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CM | 14 | 1196 | 39% | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 1281 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | AM | 17 | 907 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.29 | 1286 | 1281 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Utkin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Vini Souza Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Berkan Kutlu Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Gedson Fernandes Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Berkay Özcan Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €4.4M | €2.3M | fell |
| İrfan Can Kahveci Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €11.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Göztepe | Besiktas | €5.0M | €1.2M |
| 25 Jul 2025 | Grenoble | Göztepe | €850k | €500k |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Troyes | Grenoble | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Chamois Niort | Troyes | Unknown | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Troyes | Chamois Niort | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Chamois Niort | Troyes | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Ayema FC | Chamois Niort | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.