Neil El Aynaoui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Neil El Aynaoui's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-15.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.3M-29.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.9M-32.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (991 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €23.6M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 991 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.9M – €32.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+154 Elo); relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -78% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 991 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 25 | 991 | 29% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 1459 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CM | 24 | 1587 | 52% | 8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.37 | 1440 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 1568 | 51% | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1470 | 1518 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 9 | 712 | 1 | 0 | 1470 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Morocco | 7 | 690 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 3 | 263 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | RC Lens | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RC Lens | 3 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eljif Elmas Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Felix Nmecha Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Emre Can Bundesliga · 2020 | 26 | €24.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Renato Sanches Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Amadou Diawara Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €14.0M | €2.2M | fell |
| Sandro Premier League · 2014 | 25 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Thomas Lemar Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €22.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Sergi Darder Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €11.0M | €14.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2025 | Lens | Roma | €23.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | AS Nancy | Lens | €600k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AS Nancy B | AS Nancy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AS Nancy U19 | AS Nancy B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.