Henrik Meister
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Henrik Meister's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-8.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (1514 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.2M vs market €3.8M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1514 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €8.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +27% (IQR -47% to +142%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1514 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | ST | 28 | 1514 | 44% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 1501 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 4 | 59 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.53 | 0.50 | 1452 | 1450 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahima Niane Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Evann Guessand Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €4.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Yann Karamoh Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Lenny Nangis Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €1.8M | €450k | fell |
| Adnan Januzaj Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Adama Traoré Premier League · 2017 | 21 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Kevin Agudelo Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Georges-Kevin N'Koudou Ligue 1 · 2015 | 20 | €2.0M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2025 | Stade Rennais | Pisa | €4.0M | €2.8M |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Pisa | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Stade Rennais | Pisa | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Sarpsborg 08 | Stade Rennais | €9.0M | €600k |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Fremad Amager | Sarpsborg 08 | €130k | €200k |
| 3 Feb 2022 | FA 2000 | Fremad Amager | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | B1903 U19 | FA 2000 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | BK Skjold U19 | B1903 U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.