Edoardo Motta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Edoardo Motta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-4.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-16.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-26.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 45.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €9.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 43% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 810 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1525
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 43%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €26.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -59% to +208%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 810 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | GK | 9 | 810 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1525 | 1522 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Reggiana 1919 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julen Agirrezabala Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Unai Simón Laliga · 2019 | 22 | €6.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Paulo Gazzaniga Premier League · 2013 | 21 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pierluigi Gollini Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €3.5M | €13.0M | rose |
| Angus Gunn Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €6.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Wuilker Fariñez Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €4.0M | €700k | fell |
| Cenk Gönen Super Lig · 2013 | 25 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rafael Cabral Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | Reggiana | Lazio | €1.2M | €1.2M |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Juventus U20 | Reggiana | €600k | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Reggiana U19 | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 7 Jul 2023 | Juventus U19 | Reggiana U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Monza U18 | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jul 2022 | Juventus U17 | Monza U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Alessandria U17 | Juventus U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Aug 2021 | Juventus Youth | Alessandria U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.