Esmir Bajraktarevic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Esmir Bajraktarevic's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.0M-22.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (1062 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €10.5M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1062 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.76
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1274
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.0M – €22.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -19% to +129%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1062 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 28 | 1062 | 35% | 4 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.27 | 1274 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 4 | 21 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1180 | 1632 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 285 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 190 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1834 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manor Solomon Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €5.8M | €18.0M | rose |
| Pedrinho Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €17.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Daramy Superliga · 2020 | 18 | €5.4M | €6.0M | flat |
| John Guidetti Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 23 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Danilo Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Reiss Nelson Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €6.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Yorbe Vertessen Eredivisie · 2022 | 21 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Abel Ruiz Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2025 | New England | PSV | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 23 May 2022 | Revolution II | New England | Unknown | €75k |
| 18 Nov 2021 | Revs Academy | Revolution II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Nov 2021 | Revolution II | Revs Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Revs Academy | Revolution II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.