
Pedrinho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedrinho's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-10.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-8.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1591 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1591 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.68
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1139
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €8.1M
Trajectory drivers: role change RW -> AM; relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -53% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1591 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 22 | 1591 | 59% | 6 | 6 | 0.68 | 0.37 | 1139 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RW | 25 | 1272 | 47% | 1 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 1180 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2021/22 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | ST | 11 | 657 | 41% | 3 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.36 | 1313 | 1568 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RW | 19 | 465 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1260 | 1619 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 228 | 1 | 1 | 1316 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 142 | 0 | 1 | 1314 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 284 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 343 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 172 | 1 | 1 | 1436 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 4 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 1448 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2020/21 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Cantwell Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Enis Bardhi Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €6.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Vladyslav Kabaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €1.8M | €2.5M | rose |
| Miguel Crespo Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Douglas Augusto Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Adem Ljajic Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €9.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Salih Uçan Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €4.6M | €4.7M | flat |
| Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Atlético-MG | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Shakhtar D. | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica | Shakhtar D. | €18.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Corinthians | Benfica | €18.0M | €13.5M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.