Pedrinho

28 yrs · Right winger (also AM, ST) · Brazil
FC Shakhtar Donetsk · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 172 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.7M – €10.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €6.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.3M – €8.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.2M – €2.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.7M – €10.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €6.4M
Projected value (24 months)€3.3M – €8.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pedrinho's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-6.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-10.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-8.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1591 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 13

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average59.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €7.2M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-49% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €17.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1591 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.68
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.37
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1420
Opponent strength
1139
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.3M – €8.1M

Trajectory drivers: role change RW -> AM; relative output up 55% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -53% to +10%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1591 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
37 (all positions)
Relative output kept
87%–128%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
86%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaAM22159159%660.680.37113914200.25
2024/25FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRW25127247%140.350.25118014140.28
2021/22FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaST1165741%320.680.36131315680.45
2020/21SL BenficaLiga PortugalRW1946515%000.000.17126016190.61

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk5228111316
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk2142011314
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk19001—
2024/25Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk428401—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4205001603
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4343001672
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk3172111436
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica4202001448
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica165001525
2020/21Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica11001660

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Todd Cantwell
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€8.5M€8.5Mflat
Enis Bardhi
Super Lig · 2024
29€6.5M€2.5Mfell
Vladyslav Kabaev
Premier Liga · 2024
29€1.8M€2.5Mrose
Miguel Crespo
Super Lig · 2022
26€8.0M€4.0Mfell
Douglas Augusto
Super League 1 · 2022
25€3.5M€6.0Mrose
Adem Ljajic
Super Lig · 2020
29€9.0M€1.0Mfell
Salih Uçan
Super Lig · 2021
27€4.6M€4.7Mflat
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Premier Liga · 2024
27€5.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2024Atlético-MGShakhtar D.Free / loan€5.0M
18 Jul 2022Shakhtar D.Atlético-MGFree / loan€17.0M
1 Jul 2021BenficaShakhtar D.€18.0M€15.0M
1 Aug 2020CorinthiansBenfica€18.0M€13.5M
1 Jan 2017Corinthians U20CorinthiansUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.