Kodai Sano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kodai Sano's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.5M-18.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.8M-20.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (3060 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.9M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1305
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.8M – €20.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; relative output up 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -23% to +70%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CM | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 3 | 7 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 1305 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CM | 25 | 1975 | 65% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1261 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LW | 24 | 1591 | 52% | 4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 1362 | 1336 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 434 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 522 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thorgan Hazard Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Alex Král Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Hakim Ziyech Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Ivan Oblyakov Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Kenneth Taylor Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €6.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Yassin Ayoub Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Bryan Heynen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €6.5M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2023 | Fagiano Okayama | NEC Nijmegen | €450k | €450k |
| 1 Feb 2022 | Yonago Kita HS | Fagiano Okayama | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.