Cherrion Valerius
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cherrion Valerius's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €514k vs market €650k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1834 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €444k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -30% to +194%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | RB | 28 | 1834 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1327 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | RB | 15 | 1208 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1325 | 1125 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Liavas Super League 1 · 2021 | 20 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis Super League 1 · 2015 | 22 | €600k | €1.8M | rose |
| Kazımcan Karataş Super Lig · 2022 | 19 | €950k | €1.9M | rose |
| Mathias Ross Superliga · 2021 | 20 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
| Dzhamaldin Khodzhaniyazov Superliga · 2017 | 21 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Frederik Alves Superliga · 2020 | 21 | €300k | €900k | rose |
| Oleksandr Kapliyenko Premier Liga · 2016 | 20 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Alexandros Malis Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | NAC Breda U21 | NAC Breda | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | NAC Breda U18 | NAC Breda U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | NAC Breda Youth | NAC Breda U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Spartaan Yth. | NAC Breda Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.