Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jean-Mattéo Bahoya's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-21.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.0M-36.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.7M-41.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1330 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26.1M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1330 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.7M – €41.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -37% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1330 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LW | 27 | 1330 | 43% | 3 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 1505 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LW | 24 | 919 | 30% | 2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.38 | 1492 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LW | 8 | 171 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1565 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | AM | 10 | 263 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1571 | 1221 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 93 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 400 | 1 | 1 | 1560 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javairô Dilrosun Bundesliga · 2020 | 22 | €14.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Breel Embolo Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €14.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Désiré Doué Ligue 1 · 2024 | 19 | €30.0M | €120M | rose |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Justin Kluivert Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Antonio Sanabria Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €9.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Lazar Markovic Premier League · 2017 | 23 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Demarai Gray Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €20.0M | €14.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2024 | Angers SCO | Frankfurt | €8.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Angers SCO B | Angers SCO | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Angers SCO U17 | Angers SCO B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Angers For. | Angers SCO U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.