Désiré Doué
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Désiré Doué's performance-implied value at EUR 33.1M-66.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 91.5M-172.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 71.4M-146.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1356 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €137M vs market €120M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1356 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.86
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1436
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €71.4M – €147M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +30% (IQR +3% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1356 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RW | 23 | 1356 | 44% | 7 | 6 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 1436 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RW | 31 | 1732 | 57% | 6 | 8 | 0.73 | 0.29 | 1446 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 31 | 1624 | 53% | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 1464 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | AM | 26 | 1113 | 33% | 3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 1478 | 1562 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 12 | 751 | 5 | 4 | 1685 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 3 | 199 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 16 | 740 | 5 | 4 | 1719 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 6 | 347 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 1488 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 20 | €120M | €180M | rose |
| Serge Gnabry Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €60.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Paulo Dybala Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €65.0M | €85.0M | rose |
| Ousmane Dembélé Laliga · 2018 | 21 | €80.0M | €56.0M | fell |
| Gonçalo Ramos Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €50.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Rodrygo Laliga · 2022 | 21 | €60.0M | €110M | rose |
| Álvaro Morata Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €30.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Kingsley Coman Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €50.0M | €65.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2024 | Stade Rennais | PSG | €50.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rennes U17 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes Jugend | Rennes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.