Denil Castillo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denil Castillo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.1M-12.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-18.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (1271 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €7.8M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1271 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.64
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €18.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts; team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 209% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -15% to +150%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1271 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CM | 18 | 1271 | 64% | 4 | 5 | 0.64 | 0.27 | 1250 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CM | 16 | 642 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1296 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | DM | 6 | 41 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1210 | 1497 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 644 | 0 | 0 | 1485 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 311 | 1 | 1 | 1319 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 181 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 571 | 0 | 1 | 1517 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 229 | 0 | 0 | 1185 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt O'Riley Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €9.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Mykola Shaparenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Konstantinos Fortounis Super League 1 · 2016 | 24 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Pajtim Kasami Super League 1 · 2015 | 23 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Dimitrios Pelkas Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Luka Milivojevic Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €2.8M | €10.0M | rose |
| Tonny Vilhena Eredivisie · 2016 | 21 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Shakhtar D. | Midtjylland | €4.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Partizan | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Shakhtar D. | Partizan | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | LDU Quito | Shakhtar D. | €800k | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | LDU Quito U20 | LDU Quito | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | LDU Quito B | LDU Quito U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | LDU Quito U20 | LDU Quito B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Atlético Kin | LDU Quito U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | LDU Quito U20 | Atlético Kin | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.