Nico Paz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nico Paz's performance-implied value at EUR 17.7M-51.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 57.4M-102.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 54.4M-117.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.43x the positional average in the league (2886 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €79.8M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2886 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €54.4M – €117M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -25% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | AM | 35 | 2886 | 84% | 12 | 7 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 1510 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | AM | 35 | 2695 | 79% | 6 | 9 | 0.50 | 0.66 | 1508 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | AM | 4 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1471 | 1867 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 5 | 405 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 3 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1642 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergej Milinković-Savić Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €90.0M | €64.0M | fell |
| Tanguy Ndombélé Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €65.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Sandro Tonali Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €50.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Houssem Aouar Ligue 1 · 2019 | 21 | €45.0M | €42.0M | flat |
| Julian Brandt Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €50.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Jeremie Frimpong Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Manuel Locatelli Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €44.0M | €55.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2024 | RM Castilla | Como | €6.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | CD Tenerife You | R.Madrid Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.