Saël Kumbedi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Saël Kumbedi's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-12.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-20.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1873 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1518
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €20.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; changed club; team strength down (-193 Elo); relative output up 299% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -44% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RB | 24 | 1807 | 59% | 0 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 1518 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 1 | 66 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1484 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 14 | 956 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1438 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 17 | 916 | 30% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1452 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 20 | 1317 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1432 | 1549 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavius Daniliuc Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €8.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Luca Pellegrini Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €13.5M | €9.0M | fell |
| Abakar Sylla Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Benjamin Henrichs Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Luca Netz Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Manu Sánchez Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Diego Coppola Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Chrislain Matsima Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €7.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | Lyon | Wolfsburg | €6.0M | €9.0M |
| 31 Dec 2025 | Wolfsburg | Lyon | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 28 Aug 2025 | Lyon | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Le Havre AC | Lyon | €1.0M | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre AC | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Le Havre U17 | Le Havre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Le Havre Youth | Le Havre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.