Thomas Jørgensen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thomas Jørgensen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-9.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-12.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.88x the positional average in the league (1742 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 46% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1742 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.52
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1286
- Opponent strength
- 1256
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 46%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €12.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -64% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1742 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1742 | 88% | 3 | 7 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 1256 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 17 | 1054 | 53% | 1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1303 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Hvidovre IF | Superliga | CM | 5 | 417 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1297 | 1101 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 5 | 389 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 5 | 337 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Diomandé Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €2.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Yassin Ayoub Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €2.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Lewis Baker Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Danil Glebov Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Michel Vlap Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jacob Christensen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Daniil Khlusevich Premier Liga · 2022 | 21 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Iliass Bel Hassani Eredivisie · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2024 | Copenhagen | Viborg FF | €600k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Copenhagen U19 | Copenhagen | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Hvidovre | Copenhagen U19 | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Copenhagen U19 | Hvidovre | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.